Will A.I. Replace Musicians?

I doubt it. Here's why.

Will it replace writing?

Some writing, yes. What kind of writing will it replace? ChatGPT can reasonable churn out a respectable college or HS essay that would get you an A in a class but would it be the kind of writing that people would actually want to read?

Good writing is not just well formed sentences regurgitating the aggregated information from the internet.

What are the qualities of good literature that have lasted the test of time?

Why read Emily Dickinson or Victor Hugo or Shakespeare? Could an A.I. generate such works? A.I. can only look backwards not forwards.

I have yet to hear a piece of music generated by an A.I. worth listening to that hasn't had some heavy direction and guidance from a human. And maybe that is the point. A.I. will become a tool just like music notation and recording technology.

Technology has always had a dramatic impact on how we make music. From the invention of instruments like the piano to music notation software to recording technology to social media.

Has recorded music replaced live music making? Maybe in some circumstances. You can hire a D.J. instead of a live band. But it still isn't the same. Dancing to recordings is still not the same as dancing to a live band.

A machine can throw a discuss far greater than a human can, yet we still watch the olympics and enjoy seeing humans throw a discuss. A machine can go faster than a human can run, yet we still have foot races. There is a human component of music making that can't be replaced by a machine. A human breaths, feels, thinks, makes mistakes, is unpredictable. An A.I. is none of those things. It's a tool.